Horalis Forschung
Das Blatt hinter jeder Methode: was sie beantwortet, ihre Formel, Quellen, Tests und Grenzen.
Jede Methode, die Horalis nutzt, Blatt für Blatt. Jedes sagt, was es beantwortet, woher seine Daten kommen und wo es nicht mehr gilt.
Die Blätter gibt es vorerst auf Englisch und Spanisch: Jede Karte öffnet das englische Blatt.
Wie die Forschung arbeitetNeuigkeiten
Horalis Wachstum
- Sheet: check of your plan"What stands out in my plan?" It is the result's "Check your plan" section: from 0 to 2 observations, only those that apply, each with its figure in euros. It informs, it does not…
- Sheet: cost of living by country"How much does a person need each month to live in a country?" In Horalis Growth it is "Enough to live in", the table of countries (with ✓ and from which year) and the goals of…
- Sheet: growth"If I have €X today and add €Y a month for N years, how much will I have?" It is the result's big number, the chart's curve, "What you put in" and "Growth".
- Sheet: bad decade in history"What if I start just before a bad run?" It is the "What if…?" "If your first 10 years were like 2000–2009" and the bad first decade finding: how much less there would be at the…
- Sheet: wishes and prices by country (withdrawn)Withdrawn in phase A2 (9 October 2026). "With this you could", "Things you could buy" and "Prices in" were removed from the app: their table of prices by country had to be…
- Sheet: simulated futures"What if the years do not turn out like the average?" It is "If it goes badly" (in 1 in 10 possible futures you end below €X), "If it goes well" (in 1 in 10, above €Y), the shaded…
- Sheet: inflation"How much will that money really be worth, with prices going up?" The app answers in today's euros: each figure is what could be bought today with it. Inflation also decides how…
- Sheet: personal goals and living without workingHow much capital am I missing, and when could I cover my spending without a salary? The person writes their full monthly spending, housing included, in today's euros. They can…
- Sheet: mixes (and single shares, a future piece)"What if I do not put it all in the same thing?" A mix of asset types with weights (US shares, German bonds, gold and savings) and the templates 100 %, 80/20 and 60/40.
- Study: Horalis Growth without a frameworkShould Horalis Growth leave Next.js and React and be made like the other tools (Cost of Living, Inflation): static pages that Node generates from TypeScript, with seed-kit and no…
- Sheet: withdrawal rate"When I finish saving, how much could I take out each month, and how long would it last?" It is "Could pay you each month", the slider from 2 % to 7 %, "lasted 30 years in N of…
- Sheet: default values (no starting growth; 20 years; 30 years)"Which values does the calculator start with, and why?" Since phase B2, with no growth: the person taps an example or writes their own. What still has a starting value carries a…
Horalis Inflation
Horalis Glossar
Horalis Rezessionssignale
- Horalis Yield Curve: method and limitsWhat it shows: the spread between the 10-year rate and the 3-month rate of the curve of the euro area's AAA government bonds, month by month since September 2004, with the euro…
- Horalis Recession Signals: method and limitsWhat it shows: three recognised recession signals for the euro area and for the US, each with its record against the recessions in its own data, and a combined signal (block B5 of…
Für jedes Werkzeug
- Sheet: official data"Where does each figure come from, and can I trust it will still hold in a few years?" The tools do not depend on websites that change or on anyone updating them daily. They only…
- Educational sheet: why not simply maximise growth (Kelly)John L. Kelly (1956) looked for how much to bet, of what you have, so that your money grows as fast as possible in the long run. His answer: the fraction that maximises the…
- Legal sheet: inform, do not adviseThis is not legal advice. It is Horalis's working criterion, written from the public texts of European regulation. Before launching, a professional should review it (a lawyer…
- Sheet: countries, currencies and exchange rates"Does this work for me, in my country and in my currency?" Each tool works in its user's currency, writes numbers their way and, when it turns a figure from one currency into…
Über die Forschung
- How Research worksThe department that decides and validates Horalis's methods: which model answers each question, with which assumptions and data, how it is checked and where it stops holding. Each…
- LicenceCopyright (C) 2026 Marek Pisetsky. All rights reserved.
- Accessibility audit: WCAG 2.2 AA (phase C1)Date: 14 October 2026. Scope: the hub and the three tools (Horalis Growth, Cost of Living, Inflation), built as they are published. WCAG 2.2 AA is the basis of the European…