Recession signals
Three recognised signals per area, and how each did before.
A historical signal, not a forecast or a recommendation.
ValueRecessionThresholdMonths it signalled
A hit: a recession under way, or starting within 24 months.
Euro area
Combined signal, weighted by each signal's record
○ Not signalling 0 of 100 weight points signalling in October 2026.
2 of 3 recessions signalled · false alarms: 1 · median: 4 months late
How reliable each signal is in this area
- 10-year minus 3-month rate: 0 of 1 warnings right · weight 0 of 100
- 10-year minus 2-year rate: 0 of 1 warnings right · weight 0 of 100
- Sahm rule (unemployment): 2 of 3 warnings right · weight 100 of 100
The weights come from this same history. So the combined record looks better than it would.
10-year minus 3-month rate
Signals below zero: the yield curve inverted.
0.94 ○ Not signalling October 2026
0 of 3 recessions signalled · false alarms: 1
10-year minus 2-year rate
Signals below zero.
0.45 ○ Not signalling October 2026
0 of 3 recessions signalled · false alarms: 1
Sahm rule (unemployment)
Signals 0.5 points above its recent low.
0.10 ○ Not signalling August 2026
2 of 3 recessions signalled · false alarms: 1 · median: 4 months late
Your browser downloads it from the ECB. It never goes through Horalis.
Sources: ECB statistics (AAA yield curve), Eurostat (unemployment), CEPR-EABCN (recessions). Downloaded on 2026-10-21.
United States
Combined signal, weighted by each signal's record
○ Not signalling 35 of 100 weight points signalling in October 2026.
3 of 4 recessions signalled · false alarms: 1 · median lead: 14 months
How reliable each signal is in this area
- 10-year minus 3-month rate: 7 of 10 warnings right · weight 30 of 100
- 10-year minus 2-year rate: 10 of 12 warnings right · weight 36 of 100
- Sahm rule (unemployment): 13 of 16 warnings right · weight 35 of 100
The weights come from this same history. So the combined record looks better than it would.
10-year minus 3-month rate
Signals below zero: the yield curve inverted.
0.98 ○ Not signalling October 2026
4 of 4 recessions signalled · false alarms: 3 · median lead: 12 months
10-year minus 2-year rate
Signals below zero.
0.43 ○ Not signalling October 2026
5 of 6 recessions signalled · false alarms: 2 · median lead: 17 months
Sahm rule (unemployment)
Signals 0.5 points above its recent low.
1.23 ▲ Signalling September 2026
11 of 11 recessions signalled · false alarms: 3 · median: 2 months late
Sources: Federal Reserve H.15 (Treasury yields), BLS (unemployment), NBER (recessions). Downloaded on 2026-10-21.