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4:["$","$L3",null,{"text":"An example uses its own past years. Any other number moves up and down like the S&P 500.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]
5:["$","p","For reference, world stocks grew 5.2% a year from 1900 to 2024 (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025). Type 5 and the page names it.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"For reference, world stocks grew 5.2% a year from 1900 to 2024 (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025). Type 5 and the page names it.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
6:["$","p","Beside the result: your amounts in the past as it happened, started in every year of the data. You see the worst, the typical and the best period.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Beside the result: your amounts in the past as it happened, started in every year of the data. You see the worst, the typical and the best period.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
7:["$","p","The years start at 20: every example has 16 or more such runs in its data. Change them to your plan's.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"The years start at 20: every example has 16 or more such runs in its data. Change them to your plan's.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
8:["$","p","Each choice grows at its average from past years. All use the same years, 1988–2022, so none looks better for starting in a good decade.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Each choice grows at its average from past years. All use the same years, 1988–2022, so none looks better for starting in a good decade.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
9:["$","p","Stocks go up and down. So Horalis Growth works out 1,000 possible futures, each shuffling past years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Stocks go up and down. So Horalis Growth works out 1,000 possible futures, each shuffling past years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
a:["$","p","“If it goes badly” is where 1 in 10 of those futures end below. “If it goes well” is where 1 in 10 end above.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"“If it goes badly” is where 1 in 10 of those futures end below. “If it goes well” is where 1 in 10 end above.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
b:["$","p","“First 10 years like 2000–2009” replays that decade as it happened, then grows at the average. Bonds and gold did well then, so they take their worst ten years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"“First 10 years like 2000–2009” replays that decade as it happened, then grows at the average. Bonds and gold did well then, so they take their worst ten years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
c:["$","p","A mix grows like its parts, by weight. A savings account earns its interest, minus rising prices. Your own numbers can replace any of these.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"A mix grows like its parts, by weight. A savings account earns its interest, minus rising prices. Your own numbers can replace any of these.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
d:["$","p","Only kinds of assets with a long public history are shown: the S&P 500 (US stocks), German government bonds, gold and savings. Never a single company or fund.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Only kinds of assets with a long public history are shown: the S&P 500 (US stocks), German government bonds, gold and savings. Never a single company or fund.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
e:["$","section","What it can pay you",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"What it can pay you"}],[["$","p","Each month you could take out part of your money: your money × the rate ÷ 12.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Each month you could take out part of your money: your money × the rate ÷ 12.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","The rate starts at the most that lasted 30 years from every start in the investment's past, the worst included (Bengen, 1994). Few starts in the data make it a rough guide, and the page says so. The past is not a promise.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"The rate starts at the most that lasted 30 years from every start in the investment's past, the worst included (Bengen, 1994). Few starts in the data make it a rough guide, and the page says so. The past is not a promise.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Why 30 years: a long retirement, as in Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study (1998).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Why 30 years: a long retirement, as in Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study (1998).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Your own growth has no history, so the rate is yours. The page shows what a fall like the worst year of the most similar asset would do at the start.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Your own growth has no history, so the rate is yours. The page shows what a fall like the worst year of the most similar asset would do at the start.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","The slider goes from 2% to 7%, plus the data's rate.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"The slider goes from 2% to 7%, plus the data's rate.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","“It lasted 30 years” says in how many of 100 possible futures that amount lasted 30 years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"“It lasted 30 years” says in how many of 100 possible futures that amount lasted 30 years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Prudent: in 90 or more. Risky: in 75 or more. Very risky: in fewer.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Prudent: in 90 or more. Risky: in 75 or more. Very risky: in fewer.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
f:["$","section","Your goals",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Your goals"}],[["$","p","Under the result, My goals: only the ones you add. Each says when your plan gets there.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Under the result, My goals: only the ones you add. Each says when your plan gets there.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","You give the price of what you want. The grey example only shows the kind of figure.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"You give the price of what you want. The grey example only shows the kind of figure.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Living in a country uses what an average person there lives on (see Countries). Living without working uses your own monthly costs, or a country's as a start.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Living in a country uses what an average person there lives on (see Countries). Living without working uses your own monthly costs, or a country's as a start.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Nothing is taken from your money: each goal is worked out on its own.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Nothing is taken from your money: each goal is worked out on its own.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
10:["$","section","Check your plan",{"id":"check","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Check your plan"}],[["$","p","Under the result, up to three observations, only when they apply. Each has its amounts. They say what is, never what to do.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Under the result, up to three observations, only when they apply. Each has its amounts. They say what is, never what to do.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Few years: your plan's years, or a goal, under 5 years away, and money that goes up and down. It counts how many of the 1,000 possible futures end below what you put in by then. It shows from 1 in 10. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#horizonte-frente-a-riesgo).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Few years: your plan's years, or a goal, under 5 years away, and money that goes up and down. It counts how many of the 1,000 possible futures end below what you put in by then. It shows from 1 in 10. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#horizonte-frente-a-riesgo).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Savings for 10 years or more: what the account keeps in today's money, against what you put in. And against the S&P 500, with the same amounts: what it gives up, and their worst fall. That fall comes from yearly data: within a year it may have been deeper. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#ahorro-a-largo-plazo).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Savings for 10 years or more: what the account keeps in today's money, against what you put in. And against the S&P 500, with the same amounts: what it gives up, and their worst fall. That fall comes from yearly data: within a year it may have been deeper. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#ahorro-a-largo-plazo).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
11:["$","section","Countries",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Countries"}],[["$","p","The table has 122 countries: those the World Bank's official data can price. No figure is invented for the others.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"The table has 122 countries: those the World Bank's official data can price. No figure is invented for the others.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each cost is what an average person there lives on a month, housing included. It comes from the household survey mean (2010–2025, each country its latest).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Each cost is what an average person there lives on a month, housing included. It comes from the household survey mean (2010–2025, each country its latest).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","That mean is brought to 2024 prices with the World Bank's price levels.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"That mean is brought to 2024 prices with the World Bank's price levels.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","It is a national average: cities differ a lot. Some countries measure spending, others income, and a mean is pulled up by those who have most.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"It is a national average: cities differ a lot. Some countries measure spending, others income, and a mean is pulled up by those who have most.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","✓ and a year mean what your money pays each month covers it from that year on. Otherwise the table says when your plan gets there. [The method](research:wealth-lens/coste-de-vida.md).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"✓ and a year mean what your money pays each month covers it from that year on. Otherwise the table says when your plan gets there. [The method](research:wealth-lens/coste-de-vida.md).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
12:["$","section","Rising prices in each country",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Rising prices in each country"}],[["$","p","Each country has a yearly rise in prices for the long run: the goal its central bank publishes, checked in September 2026.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Each country has a yearly rise in prices for the long run: the goal its central bank publishes, checked in September 2026.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Euro countries use the European Central Bank's 2%. Where there is no goal, it is about the 2015–2024 average.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Euro countries use the European Central Bank's 2%. Where there is no goal, it is about the 2015–2024 average.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","In Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Iran, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, São Tomé & Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Türkiye, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Zambia, prices rose 10% a year or more in 2015–2024. Where a goal exists, the goal is still used.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"In Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Iran, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, São Tomé & Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Türkiye, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Zambia, prices rose 10% a year or more in 2015–2024. Where a goal exists, the goal is still used.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
13:["$","section","Test my plan",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Test my plan"}],[["$","p","Your plan goes through past years in the order they happened, with no replay. Figures are for whole calendar years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Your plan goes through past years in the order they happened, with no replay. Figures are for whole calendar years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each crash starts the year before it. The fall is what the crash did to the money you had at the top.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Each crash starts the year before it. The fall is what the crash did to the money you had at the top.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","A fall that came back within one year does not show in yearly figures. Covid in 2020 is one of them.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"A fall that came back within one year does not show in yearly figures. Covid in 2020 is one of them.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
14:["$","section","What it does not do",{"className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"What it does not do"}],[["$","p","It gives no advice and makes no forecast. It leaves out taxes and most fees.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"It gives no advice and makes no forecast. It leaves out taxes and most fees.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","It downloads nothing while you use it: every figure is part of the page, with its source and year.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"It downloads nothing while you use it: every figure is part of the page, with its source and year.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Amounts are in the currency you choose. Growth is each investment's own, after rising prices: changes between currencies are not counted.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Amounts are in the currency you choose. Growth is each investment's own, after rising prices: changes between currencies are not counted.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
15:["$","section",null,{"aria-labelledby":"sources-title","className":"space-y-3","children":[["$","h2",null,{"id":"sources-title","className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Sources"}],["$","p",null,{"children":"Each source, what it gives, how far its data goes, and its terms."}],["$","ul",null,{"className":"divide-y divide-border rounded-xl border border-border bg-card","children":[["$","li","UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 (Dimson, Marsh and Staunton), as reported by Cambridge Judge Business School",{"className":"space-y-0.5 p-3 text-sm","children":[["$","p",null,{"className":"font-semibold","children":"UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 (Dimson, Marsh and Staunton), as reported by Cambridge Judge Business School"}],["$","p",null,{"children":"World stocks' yearly growth after rising prices, 1900–2024: 5.2%"}],["$","p",null,{"className":"text-muted","children":["Data",": ","1900 to 2024",". ","Terms",": ","Only this one figure is used: the page names it when you type 5%."]}],["$","p",null,{"children":["$","a",null,{"href":"https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/2025/report-stocks-have-far-outperformed-over-the-past-125-years/","rel":"noopener","className":"inline-flex min-h-11 items-center font-medium text-accent underline underline-offset-2","children":["Open the source",["$","span",null,{"className":"sr-only","children":[": ","UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 (Dimson, Marsh and Staunton), as reported by Cambridge Judge Business School"]}]]}]}]]}],["$","li","Robert J. Shiller, Yale University",{"className":"space-y-0.5 p-3 text-sm","children":[["$","p",null,{"className":"font-semibold","children":"Robert J. Shiller, Yale University"}],["$","p",null,{"children":"S&P 500 yearly growth (Shiller's S&P Composite), and US prices until 2022"}],["$","p",null,{"className":"text-muted","children":["Data",": ","to June 2023",". ","Terms",": ","Published openly on his site; used with credit."]}],["$","p",null,{"children":["$","a",null,{"href":"http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm","rel":"noopener","className":"inline-flex min-h-11 items-center font-medium text-accent underline underline-offset-2","children":["Open the source",["$","span",null,{"className":"sr-only","children":[": ","Robert J. Shiller, Yale University"]}]]}]}]]}],["$","li","OECD and Deutsche Bundesbank",{"className":"space-y-0.5 p-3 text-sm","children":[["$","p",null,{"className":"font-semibold","children":"OECD and Deutsche Bundesbank"}],["$","p",null,{"children":"German 10-year government bond yields"}],["$","p",null,{"className":"text-muted","children":["Data",": ","to December 2024",". ","Terms",": ","OECD data: CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit."]}],["$","p",null,{"children":["$","a",null,{"href":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/long-term-interest-rates.html","rel":"noopener","className":"inline-flex min-h-11 items-center font-medium text-accent underline underline-offset-2","children":["Open the source",["$","span",null,{"className":"sr-only","children":[": ","OECD and Deutsche Bundesbank"]}]]}]}]]}],["$","li","Destatis, the German statistics office",{"className":"space-y-0.5 p-3 text-sm","children":[["$","p",null,{"className":"font-semibold","children":"Destatis, the German statistics office"}],["$","p",null,{"children":"German prices"}],["$","p",null,{"className":"text-muted","children":["Data",": ","to December 2024",". ","Terms",": ","Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0: free to use with credit."]}],["$","p",null,{"children":["$","a",null,{"href":"https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html","rel":"noopener","className":"inline-flex min-h-11 items-center font-medium text-accent underline underline-offset-2","children":["Open the source",["$","span",null,{"className":"sr-only","children":[": ","Destatis, the German statistics office"]}]]}]}]]}],["$","li","US Bureau of Labor Statistics",{"className":"space-y-0.5 p-3 text-sm","children":[["$","p",null,{"className":"font-semibold","children":"US Bureau of Labor Statistics"}],"$L27","$L28","$L29"]}],"$L2a","$L2b","$L2c","$L2d"]}]]}]
16:["$","section",null,{"aria-labelledby":"licenses-title","className":"space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"id":"licenses-title","className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Data licenses"}],[["$","p","Most sources let anyone reuse their data with credit: the World Bank, the OECD, Destatis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Unicode.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Most sources let anyone reuse their data with credit: the World Bank, the OECD, Destatis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Unicode."}]}],["$","p","Robert Shiller publishes his data openly on his site; it is used with credit. From UBS, only one published figure is quoted: 5.2%.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Robert Shiller publishes his data openly on his site; it is used with credit. From UBS, only one published figure is quoted: 5.2%."}]}],["$","p","Horalis Growth always says where a figure comes from and of which year.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"Horalis Growth always says where a figure comes from and of which year."}]}],["$","p","The method and the sources are public. The code belongs to Horalis. The data keeps its owners' rights.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$L3",null,{"text":"The method and the sources are public. The code belongs to Horalis. The data keeps its owners' rights."}]}]]]}]
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